The concept of "Greater Israel" has, historically been an ideological cornerstone for some elements within Israeli politics that emerged from a synthesis of historical Zionist visions and contemporary security concerns in the Middle East. What began as a dream for a homeland for the Jews within the early Zionist movement has, over time, evolved into a wider land claim for which the visionaries of this concept push for Israeli territorial sovereignty beyond the internationally recognized borders of the nation. This vision has frequently been accompanied by religious and strategic justifications. In the last few years, however, it has grown increasingly contentious and even divisive in both Israeli society and indeed, at least parts of the international community also.
By new geopolitical turns, 2024 will be the most challenging and promising in the last years for the "Greater Israel" vision. The Fall of Assad in Syria, unstable ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, and the military actions of Israel reshaped the map. Israel's military power and alliances open doors for territorial consolidation, but the risks of escalation, diplomatic isolation, and regional instability are very high.
Historical Foundations and the "Greater Israel" Vision
In Greater Israel, the notion dates back to the early days of the Zionist movement. Indeed, the concept can be traced even back to the books by the so-called father of modern Zionism, Theodor Herzl. Herzl's book, Der Judenstaat, or The Jewish State, was released in 1896. There, he asked for a home for the Jews but desired that it be larger than the land of Israel in contemporary times. Herzl, in his vision, spoke of portions of the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, and even parts of modern Lebanon and Syria. His territorial ambitions were based upon the need to secure a state for Jews in a hostile or potentially hostile neighborhood.
This vision was further developed in the 1980s with the publication of the Oded Yinon Plan, which laid out a strategy for Israel to secure its dominance in the Middle East by promoting the fragmentation of neighboring Arab states. Yinon's strategy proposed that Israel should strive to break up regional powers like Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon into smaller ethnically or religiously homogeneous units, This ensures Israel's regional security while reducing the danger from these governments. This strategic imperative, based on the importance of control over strategic territories and resources, helped reinforce the concept of "Greater Israel" that stretched beyond the 1967 war borders.
The "Greater Israel" vision continued to have an impact on Israeli policy, especially for right-wing political factions and settler movements. The extension of settlements in the West Bank, the annexation of East Jerusalem, and strategic control over Golan Heights were, to a great extent, viewed as components of this wider territorial project. Nevertheless, this vision has been widely opposed, not only from the Israeli side but also in international circles, particularly on Palestinian rights and the overall search for peace.
Recent Geopolitical Developments
Syria: The Collapse of Assad and Israel’s Strategic Gains
The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime is leaving deep holes in the power structure of the Middle East, and it has wide-ranging implications for the security and territorial ambitions of Israel. Israel made a very swift move and seized the Golan Heights area in a strategic bid as the weakened government of his Syrian leadership has resulted in a caretaker government being set in Syria since the 1967 Six-Day War when Israel took it by occupation.
In the wake of Assad’s downfall, Israel has expanded its military presence in southern Syria, establishing a "sterile defense zone" along the Golan Heights to prevent hostile groups from gaining a foothold near its borders. This zone, which Israel claims is necessary to secure its borders, has been enforced through a combination of military strikes and ground operations. Israeli air strikes targeted Syrian military infrastructure including air defense systems, weaponry depots, and chemical arms storage plants to prevent those from being seized by Iran-backed forces or Hezbollah.
The collapse of the Assad regime has further reduced Russia's influence in Syria, in which Israel can act relatively more aggressively. Russia cannot counter Israeli military operations much in Ukraine because of a focus on that country. This has freed Israel to pursue its security objectives, which include stopping advanced weaponry from reaching Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed factions in Syria.
The strategic value of the Golan Heights for Israel toward southern Syria and Lebanon could not be said in words. Golan Heights serves Israel as a panoptic gaze toward the whole vicinity area since it lies across the northern borders toward Syria as well as Lebanon, respectively. Thereby, ensuring security would be possible by defending these points. Israel continues to merge its territorial victories within an uncontrollable area for very long durations.
Gaza: Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Tensions
Israel perceives the situation in Gaza to be exceedingly explosive. A week of fierce fighting and airstrikes by Israel against Hamas assets and Hamas rocket attacks into southern Israel in 2024 produced a fragile ceasefire with Hamas. Brokered by Egypt and Qatar, the current ceasefire has temporarily relieved the core issues, which include territorial control, security, and Palestinian statehood.
One of the main difficulties Israel faces in attempting to materialize the "Greater Israel" concept is the Gaza war. Every military operation undertaken by Israel to defend itself has resulted in the loss of civilian lives and another international outcry. Settlements and occupation of Palestinian territories only increase tension and hence obstacles to peace and stability.
The future of Gaza and its relations with Israel is an inextricable part of the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Any initiative by Israel to enlarge further its territorial control over either Gaza or the West Bank will undoubtedly be matched further by Palestinian factions, which have no other alternative besides resisting this move, besides Arab neighbors. A deadlock on a two-state settlement, the preferred international objective, perpetuates instability in Gaza and beyond.
Lebanon: Hezbollah and the Threat from the North
The Lebanon test to Israel is also developing, as it has a powerful Hezbollah militant group that it contests with Iran. This is a thorn that the state of Israel has had for years through this militant group, and with further military buildup in southern Lebanon by Hezbollah, it directly and negatively threatens Israeli security because it has an arsenal of missiles plus tunnel networks along the borders with Israel.
The ceasefire agreement comes after several cross-border skirmishes in 2024 between Israel and Hezbollah; however, the roots remain. Israeli military operations in the south of Lebanon had sought to eliminate Hezbollah missile launch sites and supply lines with no effect on eradicating Hezbollah's ability; Hezbollah vowed to maintain their resistance to the existence of Israel in the area.
The situation in Lebanon gets even more complicated with regional contexts, such as Iran's influence and the Syrian conflict. Hezbollah's strategic position in Lebanon is so close to Iran that their relations have become a proxy battle in the wider Iranian-Israeli conflict. Israel will continue efforts to secure its northern border and prevent Hezbollah from obtaining additional military capabilities, but the group's resilience and Iranian support make it a continuing challenge.
Regional Dynamics
Shifting Alliances and the Abraham Accords
The most dramatic shift that the Abraham Accords witnessed in 2020 within the relationship of Israel with the majority of the Arab nations, particularly the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, was on the accords. This normalized the diplomatic relations of the said countries and further assisted Israel in enhancing the economic, security, and political ties with them. Saudi Arabia, while not an official signatory to the Accords, has shown signs of improving relations with Israel, owing to similar worries over Iran's regional ambitions.
Although all these diplomatic advances are made, the entire Arab world still seems a bit skeptical of Israel's claims over territory. A case in point is Jordan and Egypt, border-sharing nations that express their unease regarding the establishment of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and continued occupation of the Palestinian territories. However, these nations, which, in addition to maintaining such relations with Israel, criticized the steps taken by the government in Gaza and the Golan, have been violative acts of international law and portents for regional instability.
Israel must find a way to maintain its new relations with the Arab states without alienating the more traditional neighbors. Diplomatic cover is likely available through the Abraham Accords, but there is no assurance of unqualified support for Israel's territorial expansion, especially in issues related to Palestinian statehood and sovereignty.
Iran’s Influence and Proxy Conflicts
Iran remains one of Israel's most significant and challenging regional adversaries, also due to its support for the Hezbollah of Lebanon and assorted militant elements in Syria and Iraq. The collapse of the Syrian Assad regime leaves a hole that Iran wishes to occupy, thus enhancing its sway in the Middle East further. This is a two-pronged challenge for Israel: to secure its borders and keep Iran from entrenching too close to the Golan Heights, while at the same time, it has to deal with the larger regional destabilizing strategy of Iran.
The fact that Iran supports these groups, such as Hezbollah, directly threatens Israel in its territorial ambitions. Most of the Israeli military efforts in southern Syria and Lebanon are in response to attempts to neutralize Iranian dominance and stop advanced weapons from being transferred into the hands of Hezbollah. However, this strategy has also increased tensions with Iran, which considers Israeli actions as part of a larger campaign to reduce its regional influence. Iranian-backed forces remaining in Syria, combined with the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran, make the security situation of Israel worse and complicate its ability to expand its territorial reach.
Turkey and Egypt’s Stance
Turkey and Egypt, two regional leaders, voiced increasing anxiety about Israeli territorialism. Turkey, through President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been one of the sharpest critics of Israeli policy, especially concerning rights for the Palestinians and West Bank settlements. Turkey has never taken on a military challenge to the actions of the Israeli state but has leveraged its positions within NATO and broader Islamic influence against Israel's regional play.
Egypt, borders Israel and has played long periods as a third-party mediator in the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians has never trusted the expansion plans of Israel. The Egypt government has condemned the actions performed by Israel in Gaza and continuously occupies Palestinian territories, which the government considers as crimes against international law. On paper, Egypt is holding a peace treaty with Israel but in public, the political positions are always against some Israeli policies, especially toward the future of Palestine.
Both Turkey and Egypt are major powers within the Middle East, making them important opponents of any Israeli territorial ambitions that would be used to expand their influence in the area. Their support for a Palestinian state and a two-state solution directly opposes the policies promoted by Israel in the West Bank and Gaza, which would define an enormous geopolitical chasm.
International Reactions
International opinion on the policies of Israel regarding the expansion of territories is important in determining the future of the "Greater Israel" vision. Although Israel has the United States as its most powerful ally in terms of military and diplomatic assistance, it is constantly under attack by Europe, the United Nations, and human rights organizations internationally. Settlement expansion in the West Bank and continued occupation of Palestinian lands are major issues and have led the international community to ask Israel to stop the settlements and look for a two-state solution.
The United Nations has adopted resolutions criticizing the settlement activities of Israel as well as military actions against Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. The ICC has opened preliminary investigations about possible war crimes committed by Israel within occupied territories as well. While Israel has long enjoyed strong diplomatic support from the U.S., the growing international pressure for accountability could lead to increased isolation or sanctions if its territorial ambitions continue unchecked.
Feasibility and Challenges
The "Greater Israel" vision faces significant challenges in 2024, both internally and externally. All of this comes amidst regional resistance, economic and military costs, international diplomatic and legal obstacles, and internal political divisions, complicating Israel's ability to pursue its territorial ambitions. While Israel's military might and strategic alliances provide expansion opportunities, the sustainability of this vision over time is questionable.
Regionally, Israel's main adversaries are the surrounding countries and non-state entities like Hezbollah and Hamas. For them, Israel's land grabbing has a direct impact on the issue of sovereignty and security. Another complicating factor is the continued influence Iran exercises in the region through support to proxy groups.
Economically, the cost of keeping the military operations and governing the newly acquired territory would be too much for Israel to bear. The present occupation of Palestinian territories and settling more people there demand heavy investment in infrastructure, security, and governance, thus burdening Israel's economy highly.
There has been a rise in demand from the international community towards the end of its expansionism for Israel to pursue a peaceful Israeli-Palestinian solution. The United Nations, the European Union, and some human rights groups have aired their demands by calling on Israel to end the occupation and form a Palestinian state, a concept antithetical to the notion of "Greater Israel.".
Internally, Israel is deeply divided over the pursuit of the "Greater Israel" vision. While right-wing political factions continue to advocate for territorial expansion, there is significant opposition from left-wing and centrist factions, who view the occupation and settlement expansion as a barrier to peace.
Conclusion
The "Greater Israel" vision is uncertain for the future of 2024. A complex interaction of regional, international, and domestic factors shapes its prospects. Despite its military prowess and strategic partnerships, which allow Israel to pursue territorial expansion, challenges abound. They include not only the opposition in the region but also economic costs and the pressures of diplomatic efforts around the world. The long-term feasibility of the vision will depend on Israel's ability to navigate these challenges while balancing its security objectives with the need for regional cooperation and international legitimacy.
Greater Israel" remains a vision that continues to be at the heart of the debates in the Middle East region as Israel continues to strengthen its hold on the area. Some elements within Israel keep pushing for the expansion, yet the broader geopolitical landscape tells a different story, implying that such a pursuit might lead to further isolation and conflict. Ultimately, it will depend on Israel's ability to adapt to the new dynamics of the region and its relations with both neighbors and the international community for the future of the "Greater Israel" vision.
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