The United States imposed sanctions on Pakistan's ballistic missile program, both against state-owned and private organizations. This measure, within a larger context of U.S. strategy to combat the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, has been condemned sternly by Islamabad and fuelled discussions on regional stability and global security. This sanctions measure, through Executive Order 13382, is symptomatic of deepening schisms in the relationship between the two superpowers and is, by the same token, problematic for strategic balance in South Asia.
Understanding the gravity of this development would require tracing the historical trajectory of Pakistan's missile and nuclear programs. Pakistan became a nuclear power in 1998 based on an initial reaction to India's atomic tests and upgrading its military strength. Ever since then, Pakistan's missile program has formed a core component of its security approach, being a kind of deterrence against the ever-present Indian threat. This emphasis on military strength is based on historical conflicts between the two nations, which have included three wars since their independence in 1947, with two of those conflicts centered around the contested region of Kashmir.
U.S.-Pakistan relations have, since their inception, oscillated between strategic alliance and mutual skepticism. While during the Cold War Pakistan proved an important counter to Soviet influence in Afghanistan, post the September 11 attacks of 2001, Islamabad played a critical role in helping the United States pursue its anti-terrorism agenda. But ever since the United States left Afghanistan in 2021, this relationship has further gone sour with the differing national interests coming to the fore. Sanctions are the latest addition, pointing toward an increasing gulf between the two superpowers. More significantly, Washington is finding space along with New Delhi to confront China in the Indo-Pacific.
The U.S. sanctions were justified under the guise of preventing the proliferation of missile technologies that are nuclear warhead capable. Senior U.S. officials have indicated that Pakistan's long-range ballistic missiles threaten to extend its reach far beyond South Asia and that such an eventuality threatens to strike directly at the U.S. homeland. The rhetoric has shifted to one where Pakistan's missile program was once considered purely regional. The policy will be a major shift as Washington frames it as a potential global threat.
From Pakistan's perspective, the sanctions are not only not justified but also discriminatory. Islamabad has always argued that its missile program is a sovereign right, developed within the boundary of international norms of non-proliferation. Pakistani officials claim that the program is defensive to counterbalance India's increasing conventional and nuclear capabilities. They think that sanctions represent the general trend of the United States' double standards, as implied in its leniency about India's advancement on missiles and nukes. The latter makes it increasingly resentful on the part of Pakistan, at which point policymakers and experts seem to be outraged over seeing such a step in the international community to undermine Pakistani strategic autonomy.
These will, in turn, accrue benefits to India. The US-India defense partnership has bloomed quite satisfactorily in recent years. The United States has provided India with sophisticated high-tech military equipment and sealed major deals to enhance their respective capacities. This arrangement has already altered the dynamics of power equilibrium within this region. As the isolation of Pakistan grows, so too do military asymmetries. The sanctions against Pakistan could further enhance this gap and escalate military asymmetry to an arms race in South Asia.
China also plays a very important role in this equation. Beijing, being Pakistan's closest friend, has helped the country develop its military and missile programs. The US sanctions will force Islamabad to move closer to China and strengthen strategic cooperation with Beijing. Such an alignment has further ramifications as it defeats the effort of the United States to check China's influence in the region. Further complications in the geopolitical situation have been U.S. sanctions imposed on Chinese organizations and entities for their alleged development of missiles for Pakistan.
The immediate impact will fall on Pakistan's defense sector and its international diplomacy. State-owned and private ventures will be targeted. The US would look to curtail Pakistan's missile development. Indigeneous know-how, coupled with reliance on the resources at home would contain this effect. In the short term, sanction pressure would further strain relations with Pakistan, putting across two immediate risks: U.S.-Pakistan counter-terrorism partnership and regional stability.
This could have further down-the-road effects: the sanctions could isolate Pakistan, make it even more prone to provocative posturing, weaken regional stability-building efforts, and complicate the international non-proliferation regime. Critics are saying that there is a lack of sophistication in the U.S. approach, which merely does not touch the heart of security concerns that prompt Pakistan to undertake the missile program. Instead, critics contend that negotiations and confidence-building measures be entered into in the event of punitive action.
However, the implications are wider than those for South Asia alone. It puts questions in the minds about the consistency and credibility of the U.S. non-proliferation policy. Targeting Pakistan, where similar issues remain unresolved on the part of India, Washington may get branded as selective and political, which could have negative consequences for the entire non-proliferation regime at the global level since nations would question its credibility and fairness.
Different opinions regarding the sanctions add further layers to the complexity of this issue. The U.S. argues that the missile program being pursued by Pakistan is increasingly threatening and must be handled decisively. For Pakistan, however, the sanctions blow its sovereignty and reflect the bias of the U.S. Regional stakeholders like India and China view the sanctions from their strategic interests and add tension and rivalry to this entire scenario.
Scenarios include continued escalations to the possibility of a reset in relations. In case the U.S. continues with its hardline stance, Pakistan might go deeper into relations with China and other allies by lessening its dependence on Western partnerships. Such a development will have wide-ranging effects on the balance of power in South Asia and beyond. A willingness to engage in dialogue may, however open avenues for cooperation in terms of mutual concerns and promotion of regional stability.
There is a great deal of the challenge that is to look ahead. Without redressing the security concerns of all the parties involved, a balanced and effective non-proliferation policy cannot be worked out. For Pakistan, transparency and commitment to international norms are required; the U.S. should assume a more inclusive approach that takes regional contexts and does not fuel tensions.
There are, however, opportunities to develop dialogue and trust. Neutral mediators and multilateral frameworks could help bridge the divides between these two communities and forge a shared vision of security. Stakeholders, therefore, have a great opportunity to work towards long-term stability and peace in South Asia by giving prominence to engagement over confrontation.
The latest U.S. sanctions against Pakistan's missile program, though changing the dynamics in regional and global security issues, should not be perceived at its face value. Its immediate consequence would be modest, but in broader terms, such sanctions have far-reaching implications affecting relations, alliances, and strategic calculus. It would therefore be wise to sail through these complexities through careful diplomacy, proper understanding of realities in the region, and above all, trust and cooperation. Only through resolution of underlying causes of insecurity will long-term stability be possible and, therefore, a safer and more balanced future for South Asia and beyond.
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