Over 1,000 days into Russia’s war against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s repeated nuclear threats against the West have failed to deter Kyiv’s allies from gradually ramping up military support. The Kremlin's warnings, intended to prevent Ukraine from receiving advanced weapons, have consistently fallen flat as each new "red line" dissolves under the weight of necessity.
This month, the Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use long-range U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against Russian targets, signaling a shift in policy. While Russia declared this an "escalation" and launched retaliatory attacks, analysts argue these developments represent Ukraine leveling the playing field, not provoking new dangers.
Experts like Kateryna Stepanenko of the Institute for the Study of War highlight Russia’s strategy of “reflexive control,” an attempt to manipulate Western decision-making by framing defensive actions as provocations. Yet, history shows that Moscow’s dire warnings rarely translate into significant retaliation.
Ukraine has long employed British Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian positions in Crimea and even used shorter-range U.S. rockets across the Russian border earlier this year. Despite Kremlin protests, these actions remained within the laws of armed conflict, which allow victims to defend themselves on aggressor territory.
William Alberque, a former NATO arms control official, calls earlier U.S. restrictions on ATACMS “nonsense,” as they gave Russia a haven just across the border. By gradually shedding these constraints, Ukraine is not escalating but simply countering Russian aggression more effectively.
With Putin’s threats proving increasingly hollow, Ukraine’s partners are recognizing that decisive support, not hesitation, is the key to maintaining global stability and countering authoritarian aggression.
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